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SUMMARY: The U.S. leisure-and-hospitality sector has reached and held the second-largest position in terms of private nonfarm employment for three years in a row. This is unprecedented. Such a trend toward an “Amusement Park Economy” with diminished manufacturing suggests a strain on world freedom going forward.
New Jersey - May 16, 2017 - Analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data by Bins Analytics™ finds that the leisure-and-hospitality sector has reached and held the second-largest position in terms of private nonfarm employment for the three consecutive years ending 2016. This is unprecedented for this sector in the data set, which stretches back as far as 1939 for most sectors in the breakdown studied. Based on further extrapolative analysis, this trend toward an “Amusement Park Economy” with diminished manufacturing suggests strains on world freedom going forward.
Bins Analytics’ analysis shows that U.S. manufacturing employment has been clinging to fourth in the private nonfarm sector since 2009, a far cry from its grip on the first position, which it held every year from 1939 through 2002, until overtaken by retail employment. In 2014, healthcare employment was edged back into third from the second spot, which it had held since 2009. Leisure-sector employment first blipped into second in 2008 for that single year, but it has now held on steadily there for the last three years.
Uncovering these dominant pursuits in the U.S. labor-force data required Bins Analytics to “deconstruct” two overly consolidated supersectors into their more-fundamental constituents to remove any obfuscation. These groups included “Professional and business services” and “Education and health services.” Without this breakdown, the company says one might conclude that well-rounded groups lead the pack, and that the U.S. economy is more stably balanced than it actually is.
Based on the data set analyzed, the public sector employs the largest segment of the U.S. workforce with the majority of that in local government. But considering just the private nonfarm sector, employment in retailing has been king since 2003, when it displaced manufacturing from its top perch. Prior to that, retail held the second position all the way back to the start of the data set in 1939. Since then, leisure employment was consistently third or fourth in the data set until 2008 when it made the second spot for the first time, but only for one year.
In a consumer economy, Bins Analytics said that it is not so unexpected that the largest private nonfarm sector of employment is retail. Looking beyond this then for more-distinctive traits, the concern is that employment in leisure activities has become the next most-dominant pursuit of workers while the percentage of the workforce in manufacturing fades further. And this trend has now held up for three years in a row despite expansion in the healthcare sector due to the roll out of Obamacare.
“It appears that we’re headed toward what I call an Amusement Park Economy,” said founder and President of Bins Analytics, Michael Bins. “One should be careful not to downplay the importance of entertainment, relaxation and inspiring cultural definition in our modern society, but deemphasizing manufacturing also tends to deemphasize scientific research, engineering and technological development.”
These and other inherent multiplicative factors build economic strength, which further translates into political strength among nations, says Bins. So as freer countries diminish their manufacturing footprint and overall share of it in the world pie, the troubling implication is that their influence on world affairs will also diminish.
“This suggests a trend toward less world freedom, which is not the way to ensure our future,” said Bins. “We don’t want to end up in a disturbing socioeconomic dilemma resembling the leisure society of the Eloi in H.G. Wells’, The Time Machine, which suffered miserably at the hands of an abusive monopoly with no tools of defense at their disposal.”
According to Bins, nations need to make forward strides to survive. The reasons for this are explained in an as-yet unpublished volume of the Bins Analytics research series, LAWS OF ALL™. Transitioning away from manufacturing not only reduces forward innovative strides in a nation’s economy, it also amounts to a backward stride in the way of economic degradation. Bins says this all leaves free nations more vulnerable to a variety of eventualities. In general, projecting the end result of proposed policies could help steer the world clear of chronic problematic states before they develop.
Examining the BLS data, Bins Analytics also found that leisure-sector employment gained ground on retail during each year from 2014 through 2016. Moreover, since 2013 the difference in employment in these two sectors has shrunk by a factor of four from 825 thousand to 200 thousand. Retail may be losing some growth due to the shift away from local mall shopping and toward online purchases. And with political support for Obamacare weak, healthcare employment could easily fall out of contention for second place.
“With a three-year streak second in private nonfarm employment already under its belt, the newfound strength of the leisure-and-hospitality sector has clearly made its presence known,” said Bins. “But it now appears poised to rise even further, possibly overtaking retail in 2017 for the top spot. It has certainly reached within striking distance.”
The details of the above analysis through 2015, including a historical tabulation of the top-four ranked sectors back to 1939, can be found in research results published by Bins Analytics. More specifically, these details are covered in Part I, section 4.1 of the first sequence in the LAWS OF ALL™ research series. This section was published today on the Bins Analytics website, http://www.binsanalytics.com, in two different offerings: Part I, Vol. 1/4.1, for $4.99; and Part I, Vol. 1/1.1-4.1, for $14.99.
The finding described above represents the first in a series of findings in economics to be published sequentially as sections of this Part I, Vol. 1. These findings help characterize immense and, what appear to be, insurmountable problems that a globalized world is inducing.
The results of more than a decade of research by Bins Analytics™ into general laws of systems, social, political and economic systems, physics and the universe will be published sequentially under the series title, LAWS OF ALL™. The first sequence in the series is subtitled, System Laws Reveal Hidden Secrets of the Universe and Approaching Dark Age of Civilization, and spans thousands of pages across four parts, each with multiple volumes. The work arrives at a new understanding of systems from a unifying general perspective, and then applies that understanding to areas that appear crucial for humanity’s survival. Numerous original findings are included.
The company plans to allow no-cost access to some whole sections of the initial volume on its website homepage under the Excerpt Expressway section. Prices for paid portions of the work begin at $4.99 and will be made available through links under the Featured Offerings section on the homepage. Visitors may check the website for availability of excerpts, synopses, offerings, publication details, news releases and articles, and subscribe to receive news alerts by email.
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